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Dr.
Muqtedar Khan is Director of International Studies and Chair, Political
Science Department at Adrian College in Michigan. Dr. Khan is also associated with the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy and the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. He is the author of American Muslims: Bridging Faith and Freedom (Amana, 2002), Jihad for Jerusalem: Identity and Strategy in International Relations (Praeger, 2004). His forthcoming book is titled Beyond Jihad and Crusade: Rethinking US Policy in the Muslim World (Brookings Institution, 2004). Dr. Khan
frequently comments on BBC, CNN, FOX and VOA TV, NPR and other radio
networks. His political commentaries appear regularly in newspapers in
over 20 countries. He has also lectured in North America, East Asia,
Middle East and Europe. For a
comprehensive resume click here: Resume
Recent Articles on GlocalEye Passion
for Palestine: The Rise of Political Christianity Foreign
Policy Forecast: American Muslim Taskforce Insults John Kerry and alienates George Bush 9-11 Commission Report: An Entrée' for American Muslims in the Policy Process How George Bush Changed America The Remarkable Moderation of Detroit Muslims The Role of Social Scientists in Muslim Societies Saudi Arabia: Rethinking its Soul Come November Al Qaeda will vote for George W. Bush American
Muslims and Let the Elections be about the Future of the Free Society The Politics and the Promise of Civilizational Dialogues: Liberal Islam, Radical Islam and American Foreign Policy
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Prospects
for Peace: The article was commissioned by San Diego Union Tribune [November 14th, 2004]. A shorter version of this article was also published in The Detroit News [November 17, 2004]. Posted on November 20, 2004.
The death of Yasser Arafat, the symbol and primary mover behind Palestinian nationalism, has once again placed Palestine front and center on the global agenda. The Bush administration is once again reminded that its war on terror cannot continue to sidestep the issue of Palestinian statehood. The only lingering excuse that Israel and the United States had for refusing to implement the American-proposed roadmap to peace is dead. During his entire first term President Bush maintained that Arafat was not a reliable partner and refused to move ahead in any tangible sense.
But now, the world expects, and is indeed demanding that the United States
take decisive initiative to resolve this conflict, which many see as the
root of all problems in the region. Except some key analysts in the
current administration, most people in the world acknowledge that the
plight of the Palestinian people and the United State's uncritical support
for Israel is the number one reason for anti-Americanism in the entire
Muslim World. Al Qaeda claimed that American support for Israeli
occupation was one of the reasons why it attacked the United States. Since 1967 Israel has occupied the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem, and has held now over three million Palestinians as subjugated people without basic human rights. Yasser Arafat, the founder of Fatah (1958) and the Chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, since 1969 had launched an armed struggle that often employed terrorist tactics, to try and liberate Palestine. But in the last fifteen years he had resorted to diplomacy as the primary instrument to realize Palestinian ambitions. At least prior to the 1993 Oslo peace agreement, Israel historically had consistently opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state. While many in Israel feel that they have a "religious right" to all of Palestine, the government has used terrorism from Palestinian groups such as Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Qassam Brigade, to indefinitely delay the peaceful resolution of the conflict. They have also used the opportunity to alter the facts on the ground by building hundreds of settlements on Palestinian land in an effort to permanently eliminate the possibility of a viable and geographically contiguous Palestinian state. For their part, Palestinians long resisted acknowledging Israel's right to exist—a major demand of Israel. Moreover, a portion of Palestinians that supports Islamic groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad remains committed to the destruction of the Israeli state. While Arafat and the PLO did acknowledge Israel's right to existence and accepted a two-state solution, the Islamist element in Palestine has yet to accept this; just as some Israeli's refuse to acknowledge the Palestinian peoples' right to a state of their own. The two peoples continue to live under the ever-present shadow of violence, occupation and terror, polarizing the world and exacerbating conflicts in Iraq and other places. The shadow of their struggle looms ominously on politics in Europe, America and the Middle East. Now with the death of Arafat there will be a lot of pressure on the Palestinians to put forth a credible leadership that can negotiate a peace treaty with Israel. Arafat has a left a leadership vacuum that may be difficult to fill. Palestinians have so far been used to revolutionary-charismatic leadership and may not be ready for leaders who are efficient and smart but have a low profile.
Credible and Respected Leader Wanted Palestine today needs a leader who enjoys domestic legitimacy and credibility and international respectability. If the United States and Israel feel that the new leadership cannot deliver on its promises then they will hesitate to make a deal. If Palestinians and Arabs at large do not trust the new leadership fully, then it will be hard for the leaders to make tough concessions and promises. Whoever negotiates on behalf of Palestine will have to guarantee three things: (1) cessation of all violence against Israel even if it means violent suppression of Islamic militancy inside Palestine that could result in a civil war. (2) Establishment of a democratic government free from corruption, nepotism and incompetence—traits exhibited by the current Palestinian Authority—and work towards the welfare of its people. (3) And finally implement fundamental educational reform within Palestine to ensure that the next generation of Palestinians do not hate Israel and nurture a desire to destroy it. It remains to be seen if the Palestinians can get their act together. If power struggles ensue and become ugly, leading to conflict and chaos, then the international community will be forced to back off and delay negotiations. If the international community waits for an extended period of time and chaos reigns, then Hamas will move in and replace the Palestinian Authority as the main representatives of the Palestinian people and their aspirations. Hamas seeks the destruction of Israel, not a two-state solution. A Hamas takeover of Palestine is a guarantee of a protracted struggle, with violence as the main and perhaps only currency, with no immediate solution. The only thing working in the favor of a peaceful outcome is the fact that Israel in the last year has practically decimated the leadership and the infrastructure of Hamas. Hamas may not be in a position to fully exploit the leadership vacuum created by the death of Arafat.
According to the charter of the PA, parliament speaker Rawhi Fattah has taken over as acting President of the Palestinian Authority. Fattah is a relative lightweight with no grass roots following and will serve essentially as a stopgap acting President (for 60 days by law) until the leadership issues are settled.
The most interesting and potentially problematic leader is the young, aggressive and well-connected Mohammed Dahlan. Dahlan was formerly Arafat's security chief and national security advisor but was marginalized when he was perceived as challenging Arafat's authority.
Jibril Rajoub is another potential troublemaker. His biography is similar to Dahlan's. Dahlan and Rajoub hate each other, are opportunist and have access to a lot of muscle and are capable of using Palestinian security forces in pursuit of personal goals. It is also possible that if Dahlan creates a problem in Gaza, Rajoub will solidify his own position in the West Bank by working closely with his former ally Mahmoud Abbas. Potentially the most mercurial of individuals is Merwan Berghouti.
If set free, he is capable of perhaps even uniting the PLO and Hamas given his popular appeal. He will be a tough individual to negotiate with. However if Palestinians chose him, it may be like resurrecting Arafat and giving Israel and the United States another reason to stall negotiations. He may unite Palestinians but he may also preclude a resolution.
While Arafat's death has opened a window of opportunity for significant
progress on Middle East peace, a positive outcome depends on several key
factors; the emergence of a credible leadership in Palestine without too
much internecine fighting, the ability of Europe to push Washington to act
and the willingness of the United States to push Israel to act, and the
willingness of Arab nations to work in concert and constructively. It also
depends on the tactics that Iran and the Islamic militias adopt if the
peace negotiations do begin in earnest. ____________________________________________________ |
